野村雅道のID為替研究所 (Day)|FXブログ|外為どっとコム

「中国はIMFの裏付けもあり、トランプ大統領の為替への要求に屈しないだろう。IMFの為替戦争、貿易戦争、ファーウェイへのコメント、正論」

「中国はIMFの裏付けもあり、トランプ大統領の為替への要求に屈しないだろう。IMFの為替戦争、貿易戦争、ファーウェイへのコメント、正論」

7月のIMFの記事です


*IMF said the US dollar was overvalued by 6 per cent to 12 per cent, based on near-term economic fundamentals, while the euro, the Japanese yen and China's yuan were seen as broadly in line with fundamentals.

The IMF has been at odds with US President Donald Trump over his use of tariffs to resolve trade imbalances, but its assessment that the dollar is overvalued is likely to give Trump more fodder for his frequent complaints that dollar strength is hampering US exports.


Trump has railed against European and Chinese policies that lead to what he calls a devaluation of the euro and other currencies against the dollar.

The Fund's External Sector Report - an annual assessment of currencies and external surpluses and deficits of major economies - showed that current account surpluses remained centred in the euro area and other advanced economies such as Singapore, while deficits remained persistent in the United States, Britain and some emerging market economies.

The report said net creditor positions had increased again, and were now at a historical peak of about 20 per cent of global gross domestic product, or about four times the level seen in the early 1990s. Net debtor positions were at a similar level.

The Fund - which has warned that the US-China trade war could cost the global economy about $US455 billion ($648 billion) next year - said recent trade policy actions were weighing on global trade flows, eroding confidence, and disrupting investment. But they had done nothing to reverse external imbalances thus far.

Instead of tit-for-tat tariffs, surplus and deficit
 countries should work to revive liberalisation efforts and strengthen the rules-based multilateral trading system that has been in effect for the past 75 years, the IMF said.

"It is imperative that all countries avoid policies that distort trade," IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath told reporters. "Higher tariffs have been associated with increased prices for consumers and are weighing on global trade, investment and growth, including by eroding confidence and disrupting global supply chains."

She repeated the Fund's estimate that the tariffs applied in the US-China trade war could shave 0.5 per cent off global economic growth in 2020.

Global trade growth was slowing, which showed that the trade disputes were not simply causing manufacturers to shift production away from China, as Trump has claimed, but that the overall trade system was suffering from the tariffs, she said.

Gopinath also noted that disputes over technology, such as the US decision to put Chinese technology company Huawei on its 'entity' list - could also fracture global supply chains, raising concerns about investment and productivity. Companies on the entity list cannot buy parts and components from US companies without government approval.

The Fund said short-term financing risks were generally contained since debtor positions were concentrated in reserve currency-issuing economies. But risks remained for the global economy.

"An intensification of trade tensions or a disorderly Brexit outcome - with further repercussions for global growth and risk aversion - could .... affect other economies that are highly dependent on foreign demand and external financing," it said.

Countries with deficits, like the United States and Britain, should pare back spending in a growth-friendly manner, while those with big surpluses, like Germany, the Netherlands and Korea, should boost public infrastructure investment and discourage excessive saving, it said.

Germany's current account surplus was excessive, running about 4 per cent to 5 per cent larger than warranted, Luis Cubeddu, chief of the IMF's research department, told reporters.

"There's a need to ease fiscal policy in Germany. There is fiscal space to do that," he said, urging spending on infrastructure.

While the report assessed the euro's valuation as appropriate for the euro zone as a whole, it said the euro's real effective exchange rate was 8 per cent to 18 per cent too low for Germany's fundamentals, given its high current account surplus.

The report said that while China's yuan was broadly in line with its fundamentals, IMF models showed wide divergences with desired policies from an 11.5 per cent undervaluation to an 8.5 per cent percent overvaluation due to uncertainties over Beijing's policy outlook.

Gopinath said the IMF had looked carefully at exchange rates, but saw no evidence that changes had much impact on trade flows, particularly in countries that invoiced trade in the US dollar.

Structural changes, such as improving access to credit and better transportation infrastructure, could be more useful in the short term, she said.

Reuters

FX湘南投資グループ代表
野村 雅道(のむら・まさみち)氏

1979年東京大学教養学部を卒業後、東京銀行(現三菱UFJ銀行)入行、82年ニューヨーク支店にて国際投資業務(主に中南米融資)、外貨資金業務に従事。85年プラザ合意時には本店為替資金部でチーフディーラーを務める。

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