野村雅道のID為替研究所 (Day)|FXブログ|外為どっとコム

さあ 南ANC党首選挙

Johannesburg - Gauteng Premier David Makhura has warned that the ANC will lose its majority and extend an economic slump if it elects the wrong leaders this weekend.

"If it doesn't give South Africa the leadership that will win public confidence, not only is the ANC going to lose 2019 elections, but the country will be in a much longer protracted economic disaster, with deep pain for ordinary people," Makhura said in an interview at Bloomberg's Johannesburg offices on Tuesday.

"We have got to get a team of leaders who understand that South Africans are fed up with corruption and also fed up with an economy that is not performing."

While Makhura didn't directly name his preferred candidate, the overwhelming majority of ANC branches in Gauteng, which includes the capital, Pretoria, and the nation's financial hub, Johannesburg, back Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa for party leader. Makhura said he has confidence in the province's choice for leaders.

More than 5 000 ANC delegates, including Makhura, will converge in Johannesburg from December 16 to elect a successor for President Jacob Zuma as leader of the ANC and to be its presidential candidate for the 2019 elections.

The party faces a critical moment to regain public and business confidence and pull Africa's most-industrialised economy back from a downturn that has seen unemployment surge to 28% and poverty increase, Makhura said.

Branch support

The majority of Gauteng delegates are pinning their hopes on Ramaphosa to restore confidence in an economy that was downgraded to junk this year amid political and policy uncertainty under Zuma. Former African Union Commission chairperson and Zuma's ex-wife, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, is his main rival.

While Ramaphosa has spoken of the need to stamp out corruption and boost the economy through "inclusive growth", Dlamini-Zuma is supported by senior party officials who propose policies that include expropriating land without compensation and increasing the share of mines that need to be owned by black South Africans.

Ramaphosa is preferred by most investors.

While Ramaphosa was endorsed by more branches than Dlamini-Zuma across the country, she may benefit from the support of bigger branches in the mainly rural provinces that will send more than one delegate to the conference.

Makhura said he is confident there were good leaders among those nominated for the ANC's six top positions, but wouldn't rule out the possibility of delegates being paid to vote for certain candidates.

Buying votes

"A conference is a conference, so people may not always vote in accordance to what South Africa needs at the moment," he said. "There are a lot of influences. People may vote according to what is factional politics or buying of votes."

In power since the end of white-majority rule in 1994, the ANC suffered its worst electoral performance in last year's local-government vote when it lost control of Pretoria, Johannesburg and and Port Elizabeth. The leadership contest has caused deep rifts within the 105-year-old party and weighed on the rand and the nation's bonds. Business confidence fell to the lowest level in three decades.

There is a lot at stake at the weekend's conference as the ANC's own research has shown it will suffer in future elections under Zuma or a Zuma-backed candidate, said Susan Booysen, a professor at the University of Witwatersrand's School of Governance.

FX湘南投資グループ代表
野村 雅道(のむら・まさみち)氏

1979年東京大学教養学部を卒業後、東京銀行(現三菱UFJ銀行)入行、82年ニューヨーク支店にて国際投資業務(主に中南米融資)、外貨資金業務に従事。85年プラザ合意時には本店為替資金部でチーフディーラーを務める。

詳しくはこちら

ブログカレンダー

 

カテゴリー一覧



深田恭子さん写真集発売記念キャンペーン

お客さま超感謝祭キャンペーン

総額100万円!全員集合キャンペーン

業界最狭水準スプレッド

口座開設キャッシュバックキャンペーン