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Bad news for farmers: Fonterra slashes milk price forecast, confirms Tip Top for sale.

NZ Herald

Fonterra has cut its farmgate milk price forecast for 2018/19 to $6.00 to 6.30 kg of milk solids from a previous range of $6.25 to $6.50/kg, and has confirmed that its Tip Top ice cream business is up for sale.

The co-op, which is part-way through a stock take of its operations and assets, said in market update that it planned to go to full ownership of its Darnum, Victoria, milk powder facility that it jointly owns with China's Beingmate.

Fonterra also forecast earnings per share of 25 to 35 cents a share for the full year.
The co-op's first-quarter revenue came to $3.8 billion, down 4 per cent.

Chairman John Monaghan said the revision in the milk price was due to the global milk supply remaining stronger relative to demand, which has driven a downward trend on the GlobalDairyTrade (GDT) index since May.

"Since our October milk price update, production from Europe has flattened off the back of dry weather and rising feed costs. US milk volumes are still forecast to be up one per cent for the year," Monaghan said in a statement.

Fonterra said it was maintaining our forecast collections at 1,550 million kgMS.

Weather agency NIWA is saying its likely we will see an abnormal El Nino weather pattern over summer and this could impact our farmers' milk production, he said.

"Demand from China and Asia remains strong. However, we are seeing geopolitical disruption impacting demand from countries that traditionally buy a lot of fat products from us," he said.

Fonterra's first quarter gross margin of $646 million was down $14 million compared to the same period last year and up slightly on a percentage basis from 16.6 per cent to 17 per cent.

The Co-op's Ingredients business, despite lower sales volumes, performed solidly during the quarter with a gross margin of $273 million, up $28 million on last year.

FX湘南投資グループ代表
野村 雅道(のむら・まさみち)氏

1979年東京大学教養学部を卒業後、東京銀行(現三菱UFJ銀行)入行、82年ニューヨーク支店にて国際投資業務(主に中南米融資)、外貨資金業務に従事。85年プラザ合意時には本店為替資金部でチーフディーラーを務める。

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