野村雅道のID為替研究所 (Day)|FXブログ|外為どっとコム

トランプ大統領のドル高懸念発言の原典はIMF、ドルは、8─16%過大評価

*

*2018年7月25日

「IMF」IMFレポ=EXTERNAL SECTOR レポ 102ページ 各国別

ドルが過大評価される一方、人民元は基礎的条件に沿っているとの認識を示した。

*世界の経常収支の約半分が過剰で、成長リスクや貿易摩擦に拍車をかけているとも指摘。経常赤字・黒字が先進国により集中していると分析した。 中国の経常黒字は昨年やや増えて、国内総生産(GDP)比1.7%に達したとみられ、過剰収支国の1つと指摘した。ドイツや韓国、オランダ、スウェーデン、シンガポールなども過剰黒字国とした。

*一方、米国や英国、トルコ、アルゼンチンなどは過剰赤字国とした 。

*ドルについては、中期の基礎的条件が正当化する水準と比べ8─16%過大評価されたとの推計を示した。

*円は中期の基礎的条件におおむね一致するとした。

IMF: Escalation of protectionist policies will not help current account imbalances

IMF warns in its latest 2018 External Sector Report (ESR) that "excess imbalances are increasingly concentrated in advanced economies" that "both deficits and surpluses?pose risks for individual countries, and for the global economy." Global current account surpluses and deficits "remained relatively unchanged over the past five years" at around 3.25% of global GDP. And 40-50% is concentrated in advanced economies.

Higher-than-desirable current account balances prevail in northern Europe?in countries such as Germany, the Netherlands, and Sweden?as well as in parts of Asia?in economies like China, Korea, and Singapore. Lower-than-desirable balances remain largely concentrated in the United States and the United Kingdom.

IMF also pointed out that "persistence of global imbalances and mounting perceptions of an uneven playing field for trade are fueling protectionist sentiment." And "these impulses are misguided. It warned that "escalation of protectionist policies would mainly hurt domestic and global growth, without much of an effect on current account imbalances, as this year's report also finds."

It urged countries to tackle imbalances together. In particular:

Countries with lower-than-warranted external current account balances should reduce fiscal deficits and encourage household saving, while monetary normalization proceeds gradually.
Where current account balances are higher than warranted, the use of fiscal space, if available, may be appropriate to reduce excess surpluses.
Well-tailored structural policies should play a more prominent role in tackling external imbalances, while boosting domestic potential growth. In general, reforms that encourage investment and discourage excessive saving?through the removal of entry barriers or stronger social safety nets?could support external rebalancing in excess surplus countries, while reforms that improve productivity and workers' skill base are appropriate in countries with excess external deficits.
Also from the report, the Real effective exchange rate (REER) gap average in "2017" were:

USD was moderately overvalued by 8-16%, compared with the level
implied by medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies.

EUR REER gap average in 2017 was in the range of -8% to 0% for Eurozone as a whole. But it ranged from undervaluation of 10-20% in Germany to overvaluation of 0-10% in small to mid-sized Eurozone member states.
GBP was 0-15% overvalued. But it noted the assessment is subject to a greater margin of uncertainty due to trade relationship with the EU.
JPY REER gap in the range of -13% to 6%. Broadly in line with medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies.
CHF REER gap average in 2017 was in the range of -5.3% to 2.3%.
Canada was overvalued by 1-13% relative to medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies.
AUD overvalued by 0-17%, above the level implied by medium-term fundamentals and desirable policy settings. 1
China: The REER to be broadly consistent with fundamentals and desirable policies, with the gap being in the range of -13 to +7 percent.
The blog post can be found here.

The full report here.

+++

FX湘南投資グループ代表
野村 雅道(のむら・まさみち)氏

1979年東京大学教養学部を卒業後、東京銀行(現三菱UFJ銀行)入行、82年ニューヨーク支店にて国際投資業務(主に中南米融資)、外貨資金業務に従事。85年プラザ合意時には本店為替資金部でチーフディーラーを務める。

詳しくはこちら

ブログカレンダー

 

カテゴリー一覧



上限なしキャッシュバックキャンペーン

業界最狭水準スプレッド

口座開設キャッシュバックキャンペーン