野村雅道のID為替研究所 (Day)|FXブログ|外為どっとコム

本日は喜望峰(南アランド円)アップ致します

「政策金利は据え置き、今週はCPI、PPI 小売・貿易が改善」 

(ポイント)

*政策金利は据え置き、今週はCPI、PPIの発表
*11月小売売上は大きく改善した
*ズマ大統領の早期退陣説は消えていない
*2月にムーディーズの格付け見直しがある
*11月貿易収支で黒字が予想より拡大した
*3Q・GDPは改善
*12月企業景況感指数は改善した
*12月の民間部門購買担当者景気指数PMは悪化
*ギガバ財務相が財政赤字拡大を表明
*ズマ大統領と汚職、癒着疑惑のあるグプタ家に捜査が及ぶ
*海外からの観光客は増加
*自動車販売好調
*裁判所により中銀の独立性が維持されたことは好感された
*ギガバ財務相は景気回復のため海外からの支援を受け入れることを示唆

トランプ大統領と6チャート BBC

Donald Trump and the US economy in six charts

Donald Trump took his place in the White House exactly one year ago. Since then he has repeatedly claimed to be behind a new rise in the American economy. Here, six charts explore his relationship with US growth, the labour market and trade.

1. The American economy is growing

Donald Trump has spoken of his desire to turbo-charge the US economy to a growth rate of as high as 6%.

The latest figures, released by the US Department of Commerce in December, show that it grew at an annual rate of 3.2% in the third quarter of 2017.

US economic growth

However, after the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, raised interest rates for the third time in 2017 in December, it is possible growth will slow in the coming months.

2. US stocks have had a record run

The Dow Jones Industrial Average - which follows the shares of 30 major US companies - has risen to record highs throughout the past year in a run that stretches back to August 2016, just before Mr Trump's election.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Other US stock markets, including the Standard & Poor's 500 index and the Nasdaq index, have also reached historical highs.

Mr Trump's supporters argue that his corporation tax cuts, passed shortly before Christmas, helped to boost US shares, along with his US-centric policies, his clampdown on bureaucracy and his promises of infrastructure investment.

3. Unemployment is falling

US unemployment is falling - down to 4.1% in December - and is close to its lowest-ever recorded level of 3.9% in 2001.

It is less than half the 10% peak of 2010, reached after the global financial crisis.

Chart showing the dropping US unemployment rate

However, this downward trend began during President Barack Obama's time in office. When Mr Obama left the White House, unemployment was 4.8%.

4. Wages remain relatively flat

Despite other positive economic indicators, US wage levels have flattened since Mr Trump took office.

Wage growth has stayed between 2.5% and 2.9% without showing any meaningful rise in the last 12 months.

Chart showing how US wages have remained almost flat

Economists are, in fact, struggling to understand why low unemployment hasn't led to an increase in wages.

However, the general forecast for 2018 is that wages will rise if unemployment continues to fall.

5. Workers yet to return to the jobs market

One possible explanation for stagnant wages is that the number of workers who left the US workforce following the 2007-2009 recession was higher than first thought.

The labour force participation rate refers to the number of people who are either employed or are actively looking for work.

US labour force participation

Following the global economic crash, the labour force participation rate in the US fell dramatically and now stands at 63%. It has remained stable since Mr Trump was elected.

6. The trade deficit is rising

President Trump has made improving US trade a priority of his administration.

However, the country's trade deficit - when imports are higher than exports - has actually risen to a level not seen since 2008.

Chart showing the the increasing US trade deficit

Part of the explanation for the deficit could be that the continued growth of the US economy, and an increase in consumer confidence, have led to an increase in the goods bought by US shoppers from overseas.

However, the negative trade balance could put increasing pressure on the Trump administration, with the country now out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal and amid renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta).

世界の世界の株価番付、上位は ロシア ブラジル ナスダック。下位はオセアニア

*
    2017年 2018    
    12月29日 1月19日
1位 ロシアMICE 2109.74 2286.33 176.59 8.37
2位 ブラジル 76402.08 81219.5 4817.42 6.31
3位 ナスダック 6903.39 7336.38 432.99 6.27
4位 アテネASE 802.37 847.56 45.19 5.63
5位 NYダウ 24719.22 26071.72 1352.50 5.47
6位 上海総合 3307.17 3487.86 180.69 5.46
7位 日経 22764.94 23808.06 1043.12 4.58
8位 DAX 12917.64 13434.45 516.81 4.00
9位 南ア 59504.67 60912.88 1408.21 2.37
10位 韓国 2467.49 2520.26 52.77 2.14
11位 スイス SMI 9381.87 9509.77 127.90 1.36
12位 メキシコ 49354.42 49695.56 341.14 0.69
13位 FTSE 7687.77 7730.79 43.02 0.56
14位 トルコ 115333.01 115147.06 -185.95 -0.16
15位 6167.29 6119.3 -47.99 -0.78
16位 NZ 8398.08 8289.96 -108.12 -1.29

ユーロ円テク「1月11日-19日の上昇ラインを下抜くか」

日足、ボリバン上限でもみ合っていたが、1月11日-18日の上昇ラインを下抜き下落。1月18日-19日の下降ラインが上値抵抗。1月11日-19日の上昇ラインを下抜くか。5日線上向き。ボリバン中位が135円。

ecc0122.JPG

週足、ボリバン上限。12月18日週-1月1日週の上昇ラインを下抜き下落も1月8日週は長い下ヒゲを残し下げ幅縮小。12月18日週-1月8日週の上昇ラインがサポート。
月足、17年4月に長い下ヒゲを残し16年12月-17年1月の下降ラインを上抜ける。08年7月-14年12月の下降ラインが上値抵抗。17年4月-9月の上昇ラインは下抜く。17年11月-12月の上昇ラインがサポート。
年足、2年連続陰線の後、17年は漸く陽転。16年‐17年の上昇ラインがサポート。15年‐16年の下降ラインを上抜く。08年-15年の下降ラインが上値抵抗だが近い。

FX湘南投資グループ代表
野村 雅道(のむら・まさみち)氏

1979年東京大学教養学部を卒業後、東京銀行(現三菱東京UFJ銀行)入行、82年ニューヨーク支店にて国際投資業務(主に中南米融資)、外貨資金業務に従事。85年プラザ合意時には本店為替資金部でチーフディーラーを務める。

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